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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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